Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Thursday Night Football Preview: An Undrafted Rookie QB Walks Into AT&T Stadium and Dallas Just Got Its All-Pro Guard Back

Week 5 opens tonight at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, and the matchup changed shape in the last 24 hours. The Buccaneers are 0-4, Baker Mayfield is officially out with a thumb injury, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will make his second straight start on a short week. The Cowboys are 2-2, averaging 30.5 points a game, and just activated Pro Bowl left guard Tyler Smith from injured reserve.

Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Everything below is built from the final injury reports and the box scores of the eight games these teams have already played. For the full board, start with the Week 5 hub, the NFL schedule and the NFL hub.

The Quarterback Problem in Tampa

Baker Mayfield was ruled out for Thursday Night Football with a right thumb injury, which hands the offense to Jalon Daniels again. His debut against Packers was uneven: 19 of 27 for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, plus 55 rushing yards on eight carries and three sacks (box score). Both interceptions came before halftime.

The Bucs' four losses have been one-score games (33-27 at Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland, 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay). Tampa Bay is scoring 19.0 points a game and allowing 24.0. Easton Stick is the other quarterback on the roster.

The loss to Green Bay ended with an incomplete fourth-and-11 throw under heavy pressure with 1:25 left, which is exactly the kind of snap a rookie on the road is going to see again tonight. Track every Tampa Bay change on the NFL player news feed and the injury report.

Final Injury Report

Buccaneers

Out: Baker Mayfield (right thumb), Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot) and Benjamin Morrison (quadriceps). Winfield left the Green Bay game after six tackles and a forced fumble, and Morrison's absence thins the secondary again.

In: Rueben Bain Jr. (groin/shoulder), Ko Kieft (elbow), Chase McLaughlin (groin/hip) and Josiah Trotter (knee) are all full participants with no designation. Anthony Nelson was limited with an illness. Trotter led the defense with nine tackles last week, so his health matters.

Cowboys

Out: Cobie Durant (hamstring), DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) and Drew Shelton (hamstring). Jonathan Mingo (illness) did not practice and is questionable.

CeeDee Lamb (thigh) was a full participant with no designation. Malik Hooker, Joey Porter Jr., James Houston, Alijah Clark and Tyler Goodson were also full.

The headline is Tyler Smith. He hurt his thumb in training camp, had surgery and missed the first four games on injured reserve. Dallas activated him and waived running back Emari Demercado to make room, and Jerry Jones said he is ready to play. With Shelton out, the line is still not at full strength, but getting the left guard back changes the run game and pass protection in the same snap. Check the latest on the depth charts.

CeeDee Lamb Is the Whole Conversation

CeeDee Lamb has nearly 500 receiving yards through four games and has been the center of this offense every week. His season so far: 5 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown at the Giants (box score), 8 for 153 and two touchdowns against Washington (box score), 7 for 112 against Baltimore (box score), and 17 catches on 21 targets for 189 yards and the go-ahead touchdown in Houston (box score).

Tampa Bay is missing Winfield and Morrison from the back end, and the same secondary that just gave up two touchdown passes to Jordan Love has to find a way to handle a 21-target week. See how Tampa Bay ranks against receivers on the defense vs. WR page, and watch target share on the volume board.

Dak Prescott and the Rest of the Weapons

Dak Prescott has completed 105 of 150 passes for 1,065 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception across four games, including 335 yards on 32 of 45 in Houston. The Cowboys scored 20, 37, 31 and 34, which is where the 30.5-point average comes from. Look at the matchup on the defense vs. QB page.

George Pickens has 18 catches for 225 yards but has not scored yet, including 2 catches for 75 yards on three targets in Houston. If Tampa Bay rolls help toward Lamb, Pickens is the first beneficiary. Jake Ferguson has 12 catches for 83 yards and scored in Weeks 2 and 3. Both belong in any red-zone conversation, so use the red zone page and the DFS edge tool.

Javonte Williams has been the touchdown piece: 62 carries for 231 yards and six total touchdowns, five rushing and one receiving, with 15 catches for 77 yards. He scored three times in Houston. Tampa Bay has one of the league's stingier run defenses, so his receiving work out of the backfield is the number to watch. The defense vs. RB page has the context.

How Tampa Bay Tries to Win

The plan is the ground game. Bucky Irving carried 16 times for 61 yards against Green Bay, and the Bucs ran for 141 yards as a team at 4.5 yards per carry. With a rookie quarterback, the rushing attack is the safest way to keep the ball away from a Dallas offense that has scored 30 or more three times.

The passing targets are Chris Godwin Jr. (6 catches, 31 yards last week), Cade Otton (4 for 37) and Emeka Egbuka, whose fourth-quarter end-zone target fell incomplete. Jalon Daniels's legs are a real path too: 55 yards on eight carries in his first start gives him a floor in fantasy even when the passing is rough. Compare the group on the NFL projections page and the start/sit board.

Defensively, Tampa Bay held Green Bay to 283 yards and 2 of 10 on third down, with Vita Vea forcing a fumble at the goal line and Jacob Parrish picking off Love. That is a defense that can keep a game close. Dallas allowed 28.0 points a game over its first four, so the Bucs will get chances if the offense holds up.

DFS Angles for the Thursday Slate

This is a one-game slate, so the question is how to spend the salary. CeeDee Lamb has the biggest target ceiling in the game, Javonte Williams brings rushing and receiving work plus goal-line usage, and Bucky Irving is the volume play on the Tampa Bay side. For tournament builds, George Pickens, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalon Daniels are the lower-owned stories with a path to a big night.

Build and test lineups with the NFL DFS tools, the lineup shuffler, the lineups page and the DFS tools hub. Get the weather and roof situation from the weather page before lock.

Betting Resources

Numbers move on a short-week game with a backup quarterback, so check the board right before kickoff. Our NFL verdicts are the one place on this site that gives a call on the game. For research, use NFL props, the hit board, line check, against the spread and unders. For tickets, the parlay page, the parlay builder, parlay doctor, teaser generator, slip builder, parlay calculator and odds converter do the math.

Why This Game Matters

For Tampa Bay, 0-4 with every loss by one score means the season is getting hard to save in October. The Buccaneers play Steelers on Oct. 18 and Panthers on Oct. 25 after this, and neither team has a game on Oct. 11. For Dallas, a win moves the Cowboys to 3-2 before a trip to Packers on Oct. 18. Dallas has been a team that scores in bunches and gives it back, so how the defense handles a rookie quarterback is the real test.

What To Watch

First, how Dallas protects Dak Prescott with Tyler Smith in the lineup and Shelton out. Second, whether Tampa Bay can run Bucky Irving early without falling behind. Third, whether CeeDee Lamb sees another 20-target workload. Fourth, whether Jalon Daniels avoids the first-half turnovers that cost him last week. And finally, whether Jonathan Mingo plays at all.

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