How Accurate Are Our Picks
AI BriefWhat calibration means and why it matters▾
A model that says seventy percent should be right about seven times in ten. When it is, it is calibrated, and its numbers can be used to size bets. When it is not, the numbers are decoration.
This page buckets every graded call by the confidence it carried and shows how often those calls actually landed, so the model's honesty is measurable rather than claimed.
It is the least flattering page on the site and the most useful one.
Every prop we post gets graded against the real result — win or loss, no quiet deletions. This is our own accuracy, in public: how often each market landed on the over. A balanced board sits near 50%; big swings tell you where the value lives.
Every number here comes straight from our graded ledger — the same receipts on the Results page. The more games we grade, the tighter these numbers get. Nothing is cherry-picked; a loss counts exactly as much as a win.