No run in the first, tonight

Loading tonight's card — this fills with the count, the safest game on the board and the one most likely to break early.

NRFI is one question asked twice: can this starter get through the top of that order without conceding, and can the other one do the same. Both have to hold. That is why a single ace is not enough on its own — a great arm opposite a shaky one is a coin flip with extra steps, and the board here shows both sides so you can see which half is carrying the bet.

The first inning is not a random slice of a game. It is the only inning where the top of the order is guaranteed to bat, which is why first-inning scoring runs hotter than an average inning and why the quality of the three men due up matters more than the team's record. Our number weights the men actually due up against the arm they face, then the park.

A word on price: NRFI is popular, so it is rarely generous. Check what you are being offered against the number here before you take it — the MLB board has the prices, the weather report has tonight's air at every park, and our record on every call is public.