COUNT THE GOALS ยท PRICE THE TOTAL

๐Ÿ“ˆ Poisson Calculator

What this tool is: the count-modeling workhorse of the trade. Give it an expected rate โ€” goals, team TDs, saves, corners โ€” and a line, and it returns over/under probabilities, fair odds and the full exact-count table.

ฮป = the average you project. A soccer match totaling 2.5 goals at even juice implies ฮป โ‰ˆ 2.6.
โ€”OVER PROBABILITY
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Under
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Fair over
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Fair under
โšพ Probability board๐Ÿ’  EV calculator๐ŸŽฐ The Money Room

The distribution, plainly

P(k) = ฮปแตe^(โˆ’ฮป)/k!. At ฮป = 2.5, exactly two goals hits 25.7% of the time, and the over 2.5 lands 45.6% โ€” fair odds about +119. Compare that fair number to the posted price and you've priced the total; run the gap through the EV calculator to grade it in dollars. Honest caveat: Poisson assumes independent scoring, and football has garbage time โ€” treat it as the strong first model it is.