AI Poisson calculator: the chance of the over from an expected rate
Poisson calculator for betting: enter an expected rate (goals, TDs, saves, corners) and a line — exact over and under probabilities and the fair odds.
Nothing is worked out until you tap. Five runs a day, unlimited with a Velvet seat.
How it works
Counting events that happen at a steady average rate follow a Poisson distribution. From the expected count, the chance of every exact total falls out, and the over is everything above the line.
More calculators: the Money Room · hedge · devig · parlay · Kelly · EV
About the Poisson calculator
A Poisson model turns an expected count, such as goals, runs or touchdowns, into the probability of every exact outcome. Enter each side's expected scoring and the calculator returns the chance of each score, the over/under at any total, and the fair odds those probabilities imply.
Which sports fit a Poisson model?
Low-scoring ones where points come one at a time, like hockey, soccer and baseball.