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📉📈 The Long Run · Monte Carlo bankroll lab
Watch 2,000 versions of your season play out.
Your win rate, your price, your staking style — simulated thousands of times. See the risk of ruin, the median ending, and the losing streak that's coming whether you believe in it or not. Every league, every book, no feed required.
Everything computes on your phone — nothing is sent anywhere. Prices carry the vig; the math respects it.
60 sample seasonsmedian pathruin line (10%)
Median ending
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Risk of ruin
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roll drops below 10%
Lucky top 10%
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the screenshots you'll see online
Unlucky bottom 10%
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same skill, worse cards
Longest losing streak
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median across seasons
Seasons that profit
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finish above starting roll
What this tool does — and why it matters ▾
One season of results tells you almost nothing — variance is louder than skill over any short run. The Long Run plays your exact strategy through 2,000 parallel seasons so you can see the whole distribution of futures, not just the one you’re living.
2,000 Monte Carlo seasons. Your bankroll, win rate, price and staking style, simulated end to end — thousands of times, in about a second, on your phone.
Risk of ruin. The percentage of futures where the roll collapses below 10% — the number that separates aggressive from reckless.
The losing streak that’s coming. The median worst streak across all seasons — so when it arrives, you recognize variance instead of panicking.
Lucky vs. unlucky. Top-10% and bottom-10% endings side by side: same skill, different cards. The screenshots you see online live in the left column.
Staking styles head-to-head. Flat, percentage and Kelly (full/half/quarter) — rerun the same inputs and watch ruin collapse or explode with sizing alone.
The equity chart. Sixty sample seasons drawn live with the median path in gold and the ruin line in red — variance you can finally look at.