Which NFL team has the worst cold weather record?

Measured against their own overall record, the Green Bay Packers are 0-10 on the road at night below 40 degrees - a perfect winless run for the team most associated with cold weather. The Miami Dolphins are 4-15 below 33 degrees, which is closer to what most people expect.

Does wind actually affect NFL games?

It shows up hardest for dome teams. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-8 in games with 15 mph winds or more, scoring 13.9 points a game against a 59 percent overall win rate. Wind is the least discussed weather variable in public betting and one of the most measurable.

Which team plays best in the cold?

The Buffalo Bills are 8-2 below 25 degrees, scoring 26.3 and allowing 19.0, against a 51 percent record overall. Washington are 11-5 on the road below 40 degrees despite a 41 percent overall mark - the largest positive cold-weather swing in the book.

📕 6,511 games · 2002–today

The Weather Book

We joined every NFL result since 2002 to the hourly weather at the stadium it was played in, then asked the book a few thousand questions. These are the answers that came back extreme — each one measured against that team's own record, because a bad team losing in the cold is not a finding.

How to read these. A split only appears if it holds at least ten games and sits twenty points or more away from that team's overall win rate. Sample size is printed on every line so you can judge it yourself. Ten games is ten games — it is a signal, not a certainty, and we would rather show you the number than hide behind it.

Opening the book…

Weather from the Open-Meteo historical archive, matched to stadium coordinates and kickoff time. Results from our own vault of 6,511 regular-season games. Dome teams are marked — for them, "outdoors" and "on the road" are the same condition. Explore any pairing in the head-to-head room or see this week's spots on the Schedule Spots board.