The UFC starts their return to Salt Lake City with nine fights pitting up-and-comers against solid veterans. There is also an intriguing matchup between two rising prospects in Coria and Rodriguez facing off in what is sure to be an action packed bout. We see the return of beloved veteran Rafael Dos Anjos coming off of a two year layoff. Expect to see some exciting fights and some surprising upsets, as I do not expect the old guard to go down easy.
Court McGee v. Eric Nolan
In our opening bout we see grizzled veteran Court McGee taking on the heavy handed prospect Eric Nolan. Now this matchup is interesting for many reasons, the main reason being the age difference with McGee at 41 and Nolan at 29. With that being said, this has already been confirmed as McGee’s retirement fight, it also happens to be a hometown fight for him. Stylistically speaking, I think Nolan is dangerous but does not present anything McGee has not seen before. Nolan is 0-2 in the UFC so far having small moments of success vs Susarkaev, and not looking great in his loss to Hasanov. A big weakness of Nolan’s is the grappling, even suffering some losses on the regional scene due to said weakness. With McGee being a very well rounded fighter that is the best path for him. It is hard to ignore the recent poor form of McGee, however if he can weather the early storm, I expect him to take this fight somewhere Nolan has no interest in being.
Pick: McGee ML +185
Marvin Vettori v. Ismail Naurdiev
This fight can be summed up in one word, timing. The timing of this fight in regards to the career of Vettori is bad. He is on a four fight skid looking less and less like himself with each bout. The Vettori of yesteryear was a high pressure, high volume, fast paced fighter. A terrible stylistic matchup for Naurdiev who does not deal with pressure too well. The Vettori of old is not who we will be seeing fight on Saturday. Coming off three straight unanimous decision losses he is still a very hard man to finish as it has not happened yet. Naurdiev has big power in both hands and all the ability in the world to connect as Vettori will move forward until forced not to. Though he looked very impressive in his last bout finishing Loder inside a round, this is a much different opponent. The gas tank of Naurdiev does present some concerns, especially against a guy like Vettori, but I expect to see Naurdiev take a noticeable step up in this fight as he really has no choice. I would not be very surprised if we see Naurdiev be the first man to finish Vettori, though it is not something I would count on. We have a classic ‘guy on his way out vs. guy on his way’ up fight on our hands.
Pick: Naurdiev ML -142
Bonus Pick: Naurdiev by Finish +250
Alex Hernandez v. Rafael Dos Anjos
Here we have a very hard fight to feel confident betting on. In Alexander Hernandez, you have a guy who is very, very hard to trust. It seems like any time you put the guy in a spot to succeed he goes out there and lays an egg. In Dos Anjos, you have a 41 year old coming off a two year layoff for a knee injury, not exactly someone that inspires confidence in their current form either. With that being said, if this fight was a few years ago I would be all over Dos Anjos. But this fight is now, not then. It is unquestionable that Dos Anjos has the better weapons, but can he use them in his current state? Hernandez is a guy who fights at his best when he is dictating the terms of the fight. Though he has not looked great recently, this fight allows him to add a great name to his resume. I expect the ring rust and layoff to be a little much for Dos Anjos. If Hernandez can dictate where this fight goes, it is his to lose. I also do not mind a play on no distance as I believe Dos Anjos could still be dangerous, and on the flip side Dos Anjos is 41.
Pick: Hernandez ML -278
Bonus Pick: Fight Not to go the Distance -120
Jacobe Smith v. Bruce Whitehead
Not much needs to be said for this one. You have the offensive buzz saw in Jacobe Smith facing off against a pretty average fighter in Bruce Whitehead. Now I don’t think Whitehead is a bad fighter by any means. He has had some solid performances even notching some finishes in his recent outings in Fury. With that being said, his UFC debut is against one of the better prospects I have seen in a while. Smith is just better everywhere this fight goes. He has a legit wrestling pedigree, great power in both hands and a nasty ground and pound game. A terrible guy to run into on your debut. This is another build up fight and I expect Smith to deal with Whitehead in a quick and violent fashion.
Pick: Smith RD1 -160
Mick Parkin v. Johnny Walker
In this bout we see Johnny Walker making his heavyweight debut against a veteran of the division in Mick Parkin. The odds on this fight are even and I would say that’s about right. Walker was always a big light heavyweight so I do not think carrying the extra weight will be an issue. The problems concerning Walker in this fight have to do with consistency more than anything. We simply do not know which version of Walker we are going to see on Saturday. If we see a motivated and ready to go Walker, it is going to be very hard for Parkin to track him down and get inside. With that being said Parkin is a fighter who works, he does not just blob around the ring. He is a well rounded fighter that can grind out a tough decision. We have seen Walker wilt against fighters with that style. This is a tough one to call, but I am going to lean on the physical and athletic advantages of Walker to carry him through on this one. I will say it is not a high confidence pick as he is untrustworthy. If the questions around Walker are too much, no distance is also a great play.
Pick: Walker ML -110
Bonus Pick: Fight Not to go the Distance -170
Anthony Wint v. Lucas Armand
This is a fight that is very similar to the Smith v. Whitehead bout earlier on the card. You have an exciting, athletically gifted prospect in former NFL linebacker Anthony Wint taking on UFC debutant Lucas Armand. Not much needs to be said here. While I do think Armand is better than Wint’s recent opposition, it is not necessarily a step up. He has looked solid on a poor regional scene. While he is the bigger man, I do not believe he is stronger nor as powerful. Wint is a buzzsaw that seems to get sharper with each fight and I expect more of the same here. His athletic gifts and evolving technique should be much more than Armand can handle. Expect this one to be over quick as I think Armand will look to push the pace unlike Wint’s last opponent. He will become a victim of his own gameplan.
Pick: Wint RD1 -135
Marcus McGhee v. Anthony Romero
`This fight got put together on very short notice as McGhee’s original opponent Bernardo Sopaj pulled out due to injury. In that initial matchup, I favored Sopaj. However, his replacement Anthony Romero has made me switch my tune and sing the praises of McGhee. I do not think Romero is a bad fighter. He is aggressive, powerful and has very solid striking technique as well as a solid ground game. His finishing streak on the regional scene is nothing to turn your nose up at either. With that being said he has never faced an opponent of McGhee’s caliber, no one even close really. McGhee is a very well rounded fighter who has fought the who’s who at bantamweight and looked solid while doing so. I expect him to use his lowkicks, and solid jab to keep Romero guessing about rushing in. I think Romero could be dangerous early but after that initial storm I do not believe it will be even remotely close. Expect McGhee to take this fight pretty much wherever he wants, finding a finish is also a very real possibility.
Pick: McGhee by Finish -105
Damian Pinas v. Andrey Pulyaev
We have yet another build up fight for an exciting prospect here but this one is a little different. I think Pulyaev can be a legitimately tough puzzle for Pinas to figure out. He is a long, rangey striker that is constantly on his bike, even giving some trouble to Ateba Gautier who was unable to find the finish against him. I think it is a puzzle Pinas will be able to solve with the weapons he has at his disposal. Pinas is one of the best prospects in the middleweight division, with natural power and timing that rivals any in the organization. He is very athletically gifted and seems to improve each time out, looking scary in his most recent bout against Almeida. Using timing to connect with power is a very useful skill to have and should aid him well in this fight. Pulyaev’s confidence has to be at an all time low after being fed to prospect after prospect. Expect Pulyaev to seem a little unsure of himself as he is being used as another feeder opponent for a scary prospect. Pinas should figure out the puzzle early and make Pulyaev look even worse.
Pick: Pinas KO -200
Bonus Pick: Pinas RD1 KO +150
Alden Coria v. Imanol Rodriguez
Finally, in our feature fight of the prelims we have a fight that I believe could steal the show Saturday night. You have two fast rising, exciting prospects, Alden Coria and Imanol Rodriguez, facing off against each other, in a bout that is sure to produce fireworks. In Coria you have the naturally bigger man, who also holds the grappling as well as the experience advantage. He has a very solid all around game and has looked impressive in his UFC run so far finishing Alessandro Costa in his debut and dominating Gurule and Nicoll to decision wins. If he is able to use his range well and get ahead early it could be a long night for Rodriguez.
On the side of Rodriguez you see serious power and a will to win. In his debut against Borjas he took a lot of shots and did a lot of damage early but rallied to find the KO win in the second. What worries me about Rodriguez is he is very hittable early on and tends to fall behind before finding his footing and picking up the slack. His power allows him to pull himself out of bad situations which he could find himself in here. It has been seen that he is solid on the ground as well though I still think Coria holds the advantage there.
All in all, this is a very even fight. I think whoever is able to dictate the pace early on should find themselves with their hand raised at the end of it. The slow starting for Rodriguez concerns me even more so due to the fact that Coria is a fast starter. I am going to lean on the experience and size advantage for Coria here and side with him. Though the possibility of Rodriguez coming on late and finding his shot is very real.
Pick: Coria ML +120
An action packed, nine fight prelim card with exciting fights throughout is going to lead us into a highly anticipated main card ending in a title bout for the vacant Women’s Flyweight belt. Check out picks and predictions for the main card on the most recent episode of The Scrap Sheet on the Not Moved Podcast linked below the article.
https://www.youtube.com/live/MIjf6ZXKYIk?si=3UkhdtAU4w6W-EO9
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All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
