We start our night with seven action packed bouts, sure to deliver a great warmup for the highly anticipated flyweight championship rematch. We have a former contender in Marlon Vera. Two fighters looking to bounce back in Shahbazyan and Ferreira. As well as a heavyweight matchup sure to deliver some fireworks with Tai Tuivasa taking on Robelis Despaigne. We cover all seven preliminary bouts here, giving a pick and prediction for each.
Giga Chikadze v. Joanderson Brito
In our opening bout, we see a long, rangy striker in Chikadze taking on the Brazilian power puncher Joanderson Brito. Each fighter presents a unique set of skills seemingly made to counteract each other but do not get it twisted, in their current form this is a very dangerous matchup for Chikadze. With his outside style he uses his powerful kicks, at all levels, to establish range and likes to go in and out with quick flurries. During these flurries he is very hittable. In all of his recent fights he was stunned more than once during an exchange he initiated. Coming off of a bad knockout to Kevin Vallejos, I expect him to be a little more tentative due to the state of his chin, and the grappling threat of Brito. When tentative, Chikadzes style does not work, and he is left susceptible to power shots and takedowns. On the ground he is entirely out of his element.
What Brito has shown me is that he has almost a tailor made skill set to win this fight. He has the power advantage in spades. He is a short, compact fighter that does a great job cutting the ring and finding his shot. He can get a little overzealous chasing a finish and leave himself open, but in close range Chikadze should not have much for him. Where I really expect to see Brito excel is on the ground. Chikadze is inept on the ground as we’ve seen in the Onama fight, and I believe that the worry about Britos power shots, will lead to him finding takedowns and forcing grappling exchanges. Look for Brito to get the takedown of some of his big shots in tight exchanges, which can open even more opportunities for his striking.
Pick: Brito by KO/SUB -145
Casey O’Neill v. Eduarda Moura
For our next bout, we do not have to spend a lot of time on this one. We have Casey O’Neill coming off some time training in Thailand and a vicious first round KO of Gabriella Fernandes facing Eduarda Moura, a jiu jitsu specialist. I don’t think there is any way to explain this one besides the fact that Moura has no real path to victory. Her only hope is getting a takedown and forcing the fight to the ground. Unfortunately, to do that she has to strike with one of the most powerful in the division who also boasts a 70% takedown defense rate.
O’Neill is better wherever this fight goes but she won’t need to use much other than her striking. She holds a huge power advantage and on top of that, she is well aware that Moura wants to get this fight on the ground fast. Moura will leave herself open to power shots chasing a takedown, or the power will be too much of a threat for her to be willing to step inside. Either way, I believe O’Neill is able to catch her and find a finish here.
Pick: O’Neill by KO/SUB +275
Edmen Shahbazyan v. Bruno Ferreira
This middleweight bout sees two veterans of the division face off in what both hope to be a return to the win column. On one side we have ‘The Golden Boy’ Edmen Shahbazyan coming off a loss to a great opponent in Brendan Allen. He is a powerful counter striker with a well rounded game consisting of an arsenal of kicks as well as a 66% takedown defense rate. Showing a tendency to fade late into fights, he seems to have worked past that dropping a hard fought decision in his last bout. There is a significant height advantage as well as a slight reach advantage on the side of Shahbazyan. If he is able to keep this fight standing and use his weapons, there should be no issue dealing with a fighter like Ferreira who has shown serious cracks in his chin.
On the other side we have Bruno ‘Hulk’ Ferreira, an opportunistic power puncher in every sense of the word. Looking to snap his two fight losing streak he has a tough test in front of him. His best path to victory consists of dragging this fight to the ground. For that to happen he needs to use his striking to disguise his takedowns which he will find troublesome. Though he holds power in both hands, I believe the physical disadvantages as well as his big swing style will lead to his downfall. If forced to stand with Shahbazyan, Ferreira does not have the tools to land with the power he needs. Shahbazyan will be able to find his counterstrikes and take this fight wherever he wants, power will not be an equalizer in this one.
Pick: Shahbazyan ML -185
Ryan Gandra v. Ozzy Diaz
There isn’t really a word to describe Gandra besides dangerous. Alternatively, there isn’t really a word to describe Diaz besides lackluster. This is matchmaking to build hype around an exciting prospect at its finest. Throughout his career, Diaz has consistently been the nail. Losing in the first round to Zhang Ming Yang in his debut, being stopped by Joe Pyfer on the contender series, and losing in the second to Ateba Gautier, there’s a pattern here. In Gandra you have a prospect with under two minutes of octagon time in his first two fights. He is pressure personified rushing in with wild, powerful shots looking to end the fight as quickly as possible. He is also a brown belt in BJJ and Judo but he won’t need to use it. Diaz holds a five inch reach advantage and fights behind a long jab and average striking in every regard. That long jab has not kept anyone off of him. This is a classic hammer vs nail matchup. There is not really another way to cut it.
Pick: Gandra R1 KO -125
Michael Aswell Jr. v. Joo Sang Yoo
This is a very interesting fight due to the fact that both guys present a pretty unique challenge for one another. In Aswell you have a fighter who does not stop coming forward. He is a pressure heavy boxing specialist who lands 7.6 significant strikes per minute, his style does leave him open to absorb some punishment. However, against a counter puncher like Yoo, the constant pressure and solid chin of Aswell should allow him to get the better of most exchanges. Though he takes some shots he has never been finished in his career, all five losses coming via decision. He looks to snap his two fight losing streak this weekend, against a fighter coming off an 11 month lay off.
On the other side of the coin you have Joo Sang Yoo. He is a counterpuncher in every sense of the word. Entering the UFC with a 28 second knockout, then dropping his next fight via R2 KO to Daniel Santos. Taking some time off to work on his game I am interested to see what has been added to his arsenal. He is a fighter who is constantly moving laterally, willing to take a shot to give one and does a great job mixing in his kicks. With that being said, he fights with his hands low and does tend to favor some flashier attacks which could sap his energy late in the fight.
The constant forward movement of Aswell should leave room for Yoo’s counters. However, Yoo is a fighter who likes to put on a show and I believe he will accept Aswell’s invitation to brawl. Despite that being his least likely path, he just has not shown me a great fight IQ as evidenced in his loss to Santos. The longer this fight goes the more it favors Aswell. In a battle of attrition, I have to side with the guy who has shown he can really take a shot.
Pick: Aswell ML +170
Tai Tuivasa v Robelis Despaigne
Here we have another bout that does not require a lot of explaining. We see Bam Bam Tuivasa facing off against the Cuban Robelis Despaigne in what is sure to be a bout that produces a highlight knockout. While I am not very high on Despaigne overall, I do not think he is the man that is going to allow Tuivasa to snap the 7 fight skid that he is on currently. Both men hold huge power in both hands but Despaigne is a much more technical striker. On top of that, he has the much better gas tank which I don’t think will really have to show itself. They are going to look to stand and bang and with the height advantage and 9 inch reach advantage for Despaigne, Tuivasa is already in a bad spot there. Despaigne will be able to find his shot as Tuivasa comes in looking for one of those big rights. Everything in this fight will be landed with power, so getting countered rushing in is a death sentence here. This one will be over early as Tuivasa does not have much outside of the first three minutes.
Pick: Despaigne R1 KO -150
Charles Jourdain v. Marlon Vera
It is going to be hard for me to hide my disappointment in Vera explaining this one. He is a former title challenger, with powerful striking and a solid jiu jitsu game. Widely regarded as having the best chin in MMA, he has never been finished in his almost forty fight career. It seems since his loss to O’Malley to start this four fight skid, he has not been the same fighter. The lack of volume through the first two rounds always puts him behind the eight ball. Any advice from his corner is typically ignored as you rarely see him make adjustments. He has the tools to win this fight but I do not believe he is going to use them and we see him go behind early as usual, giving us a too little too late performance in the third.
Charles Jourdain has looked great since his move down to bantamweight, coming into this one on a three fight win streak. This will be his best opponent in the division thus far. His style is tailor made to exploit the inactivity of Chito. There is a lot of volume coming from him at all levels, not to mention a pretty sound grappling game. He will be able to build an early lead due to the inactivity of Vera and go into the third ahead by two, leading to the too little too late round from Vera that I previously mentioned. Overall, this is a winnable fight for Vera but his recent form, and the clear stylistic advantage of Jourdain should prove to be troublesome.
Pick: Jourdain ML -205
An action packed prelim card with exciting fights throughout is going to lead us into a highly anticipated main card. Check out picks and predictions for the main card on the most recent episode of The Scrap Sheet on the Not Moved Podcast linked below the article.
https://www.youtube.com/live/xWyV6kqDUQc?si=suHZ0o2lwPNO2bVF
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