To cap off the night in the UFC’s return to the Apex, we see a clash between an electric, rising lightweight contender in Quillan Salkilld, and a proven veteran looking to make his own path to the title, Mateusz Gamrot. After several hours of analyzing film I can confidently say this is anyone’s fight. The styles of each fighter leave small weaknesses and chinks in the armor that allow for all the makings of an exciting close fight that is sure to leave every viewer thrilled from bell to bell.
We start with the veteran, Gamrot. He is coming off an impressive head & arm choke submission victory over Esteban Ribovics, bringing his record to 3-2 in his last five. Looking at those losses, coming against Dan Hooker and Charles Oliveira respectively; the strength of his schedule cannot be discounted. Due to his contender status over the last few years, he has fought a serious lineup also including veterans like Ludovít Klein and Rafael Fiziev, winning both fights. He possesses a wrestling-heavy style, yet remains patient preferring to circle the cage and wait for his opportunity to shoot in. Once he has control he rarely loses it as he flows over and floats on top of his opponents, constantly beating the other man around the circle with very heavy top and forward pressure in grappling exchanges. When he sees the opportunity for a submission or a move to a more dominant position he does not let it pass. His patience allows him to find counters and he has solid power when he lands, however it is clear that much of his striking is used to set up his wrestling, which can be exploited. Gamrot moves urgently when in bad positions and has the grappling prowess to get himself out of most sticky situations. It’s also been shown that he can take a shot and recover fast, but that cannot always be relied on.
Now looking at some weaknesses seen in his two most recent losses, they are weaknesses that could rear their ugly head around again. In his loss to Hooker, his unwillingness to lead the dance eventually became a detriment. Despite finding early success in his striking, countering Hooker and dropping him twice, he continued to abandon it in favor of patiently waiting for an opportunity to shoot. His refusal to be the one to go first constantly put him in bad spots, backed up against the cage, tripping over his own heels. That tendency also showed Hooker and his corner that the striking of Gamrot was fairly inconsequential as it was always to set up a takedown attempt. This allowed Hooker to fight the fight on his terms, and ultimately steal a split decision. Oliveira completely outclassed him in all aspects of the fight, as he does to most people. However, Gamrot displayed the same tendency that lost him the Hooker fight. The striking was not a serious enough threat to slow his opponent down, or disguise his own gameplan. Getting beat at his own game in the first round of that fight, he came out in the second more willing to lead the dance which was a great adjustment. Yet he regressed into his more patient style, backing himself against the cage, which ultimately gave Oliveira the opportunity to pursue a grappling exchange and find a finish by face crank. His weaknesses are tailor made for well rounded, aggressive fighters to exploit.
Onto the rising contender, Quillan Salkilld. He is coming off of several impressive knockout wins, most recently against #12 ranked Beniel Dariush, finishing him emphatically in the first round after facing some early adversity. His strength of schedule did not pick up until recently, however fighters such as Nasrat Haqparast and Jamie Mullarkey are tough veterans who he dealt with in short order, by head-kick knockout and neck-crank submission, respectively. Salkilld is efficient in all areas a fight can go. He looks to start first and establish range early with solid leg kicks and a quick jab, though he favors the low kick. The range is found quick and he is not afraid to sit into his strikes once it’s been found. Being aggressive and taking any opportunity seen is the basis of the style. He has the power and the timing that allow him to capitalize on most openings he observes. Speaking on his grappling, we saw it on full display in his fight against Yanal Ashmouz. In his only UFC fight to leave the first round, Salkilld won a dominant decision despite being put to the test during some exchanges. What allows him to excel in grappling exchanges is the fact that his opponents have no choice but to respect his striking. Salkilld displays a strong ability to reverse positions and turn a bad position into a dominant one he can do work from. Fantastic takedown defense and great cage work allow him to move the fight where he wants it to be. Granted Ashmouz is no Gamrot, but the skills displayed that can translate to this fight are undeniable.
It’s hard to find weaknesses in a fighter with as little cage time as Salkilld, as there simply isn’t more than one fight that went long enough to see a true deficiency. Despite that fact, much like the strengths shown during the Ashmouz fight, the weaknesses seen in that same fight could translate right over to the current matchup. If not the one going first, he tends to backup under heavy pressure and can be caught. Despite that he responds well and shows a strong chin and an ability to respond. In all actuality, his biggest detriment in this fight can be noted simply as inexperience. He has all the tools, does he know how to use them against an opponent like Gamrot? The adversity faced early on in the Beniel fight, was him getting out struck and out wrestled by a much more experienced fighter, almost getting finished then being controlled for three minutes before finding his shot after breaking off the cage. Salkilld has not yet faced an opponent with Gamrot’s wrestling prowess, it is simply a matter of if his tools will prove effective at this level.
With all the information we have to this point, it’s a classic rising contender vs. established contender matchup. Gamrot’s hesitation could allow Salkilld to dethrone him and take his place. Salkilld’s aggressiveness could walk him right into grappling exchanges and counters he hasn’t had to face before. Both fighters possess the skills to truly dominate and control this fight, it is simply a matter of who wants to follow who’s tune.
Why Gamrot Will Win
To put it quite bluntly, experience is the bread and butter of the fight game. Facing high level opponents such as Charles Oliveira, Dan Hooker, and Rafael Fiziev, Gamrot has seen styles and weapons similar to Sallkilds and proven he can handle them and come out on top. He will be Salkillds toughest opponent to this point by a long shot and could very easily derail the Australians ascension through the rankings. If Gamrot is willing to go first and set the pace and tone for the fight he can very quickly put a dangerous striker on the back foot and force the grappling exchanges that he’s shown he can dominate. Frankly, the ball is in his court on this one.
Why Salkilld Will Win
Gamrot displayed weaknesses that can be greatly exploited by a style like Salkilld’s. His unwillingness to lead exchanges and tendency to back himself all the way to the cage play right into the hands of a style looking to push you there. The power and timing are there to make Gamrot pay for lazy strikes thrown just cause he has to before shooting a takedown. This is a real step up for Salkilld, I believe he has all the skills at his disposal to make the step up. As long as the spotlight of the moment does not get to him, he can make Gamrot pay for his hesitancy, early and often.
My Pick and Predictions
Ultimately, I believe Gamrot’s hesitancy and unwillingness to make his own shot will cost him his spot in the rankings. Salkilld is too aggressive of a striker to sit back and wait for him to bring the fight to you. He forces striking exchanges, which we have seen Gamrot look to get away from, to the point of backing himself into a corner. Salkilld has solid enough grappling to keep this fight on the feet, as well as the power to make his opponent pay for inconsequential striking. He is going to come out aggressive and look to set the tone. If this fight is at his pace, it is his to lose.
Main Pick: Salkilld ML -135 Bonus Pick: Salkilld by KO +240
📣 Share this article
Send it to the group chat, post it, or grab the link.
