With first-round play wrapped up, the U.S. Open is living up to its reputation as the most unpredictable Major on the calendar. Between shock early exits, high-profile injury absences, and a crop of hungry dark horses, Arthur Ashe Stadium is set for an explosive fortnight.
Here is a look at the major structural trends shaping both draws and predictions for how the rest of the tournament will unfold across men's and women's singles.
Key Tournament Trends
A Vacuum at the Top of the Men's Draw: Four-time champion Novak Djokovic suffered his earliest exit at Flushing Meadows following a five-set shocker against Mariano Navone. Combined with World No. 1 Jannik Sinner missing the tournament due to a knee injury, draw density has shifted massively, leaving wide-open pathways for mid-tier seeds to push for deep runs.
Rust vs. Elite Ceiling: Men's title favorite Carlos Alcaraz (+250) enters New York after missing nearly five months with a right wrist injury. How quickly he builds rhythm in early best-of-five conditions will decide whether he can defend his crown.
Momentum from the Hard-Court Swing: French standout Arthur Fils (+1200) arrives red-hot after winning the Cincinnati Masters, while American Coco Gauff (+400) reclaimed her peak form by lifting the women's Cincinnati trophy.
Women's Power Surge on Laykold Courts: The fast hard courts continue to favor dominant ball-strikers. Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka leads the field as the betting favorite, with Iga Świątek and Jessica Pegula lurking as primary threats in a stacked top tier.
Men’s Singles Predictions
Quarterfinal Dark Horse: Arthur Fils vs. Ben Shelton
Arthur Fils' blistering hard-court form makes him a prime candidate to crash the final weekend. However, Ben Shelton's lethal serve and home-court energy give him a massive edge in New York. Expect the winner of this potential late-round battle to claim a spot in the semifinals.
Top Half Finalist: Alexander Zverev
Holding the top seed at a Grand Slam for the first time, Zverev was handed a favorable top-half draw following Djokovic's early elimination. His big serve and consistency from the baseline make him the heavy pick to advance out of his half.
Bottom Half Finalist: Carlos Alcaraz
If his wrist holds up through grueling early tests, Alcaraz’s ceiling remains head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field in Sinner's absence. His shotmaking versatility on hard courts gives him the firepower needed to navigate the bottom half.
Men's Champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Assuming he builds necessary rhythm through the middle rounds, Alcaraz has the defensive range and big-match pedigree to outlast Zverev in a high-stakes final showdown.
Women’s Singles Predictions
Quarterfinal Breakthrough: Jessica Pegula
Pegula holds a clean path through her quarter of the draw. With her usual consistency and laser-focused baseline play, she is primed to reach the final weekend without burning through excess energy.
Semi-Final Clash: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
While Pegula will press with steady deep groundstrokes, Sabalenka's raw power off both wings and dominant serve make her a matchup nightmare on fast courts. Sabalenka gets the edge in a tight three-setter.
Championship Match: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff / Iga Świątek
The bottom half promises a blockbuster semi-final between Cincinnati champion Coco Gauff and former US Open winner Iga Świątek. Gauff's court coverage and momentum give her a slight edge to advance to the final.
Women's Champion: Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka's unmatched serve velocity and sheer aggression on Laykold hard courts give her the ultimate advantage, making her the safest pick to secure a historical third consecutive U.S. Open crown
