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🏈 NFL
Bo Nix

Bo Nix Stats, Zones, Props & DFS

#10 · QB · 6' 2" · 217 lbs · age 26 · Oregon · 3 yr vet
Denver Broncos checking status… ⚖️ Compare
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AI BriefBo Nix · the numbers, the matchup and the wire▾

Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos (#10 · QB · 6' 2" · 217 lbs) has a page here because every man on a roster does: his game log, the props the books post on him, how often he has beaten those numbers, and our own projection when there is a line to project against.

Bo Nix has gone over his number in 8 of his last 30 settled props on this board.

Tonight's spot grades 61 out of 100 — even spot — from his own line, the side he faces, the park and the travel.

We project 217.18 pass yds, moved from a base of 198.42 by vs ARI pass D #24 (+5.8%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at ARI.

We project 1.27 pass tds, moved from a base of 1.16 by vs ARI pass D #24 (+5.8%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at ARI.

We project 26.34 rush yds, moved from a base of 24.73 by vs ARI run D #23 (+5%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at ARI.

We project 0.18 rush tds, moved from a base of 0.17 by vs ARI run D #23 (+5%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at ARI.

Everything on this page is graded after the final. Every projection is written down before the game and marked after it, and the running record lives on our results page.

The full board for his league is here. Headlines are summarised with their source; the full stories stay with the outlets that wrote them.

Finding the next game…

This is the live market page for Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos — every posted player prop with the house price on every line, tonight's best bet, live DraftKings salary and value, a market-graded start/sit verdict, price heat, and the latest news. Updated throughout the day. All math vig-included.

📐 Bo Nix — TONIGHT’S PROJECTION · AT ARI
61
Matchup Grade · Even spotHow good tonight’s spot is for him, out of 100 — the defense he faces, the game the number expects, the surface, the rest and the weather.
Pass Yds217.18from 198.42 · 5 games
vs ARI pass D #24 +5.8%on the road -2%grassextra rest · 14 days +3%dome +2%implied 22.5 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -0.1%the machine · 5 graded +0.5%his over rate L10 60% at 149.1 (5 graded)
Pass Tds1.27from 1.16 · 5 games
vs ARI pass D #24 +5.8%on the road -2%grassextra rest · 14 days +3%dome +2%implied 22.5 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -0.1%the machine · 5 graded +0.5%his over rate L10 80% at 0.5 (5 graded)
Rush Yds26.34from 24.73 · 5 games
vs ARI run D #23 +5%on the road -2%grassextra rest · 14 days +3%domeimplied 22.5 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -0.1%the machine · 5 graded +0.5%his over rate L10 0% at 14.1 (5 graded)
Rush Tds0.18from 0.17 · 5 games
vs ARI run D #23 +5%on the road -2%grassextra rest · 14 days +3%domeimplied 22.5 pts (house engine, nfl-v3) -0.1%the machine · 5 graded +0.5%
The number is his last ten moved by the matchup — the factors above are why. Every prop on tonight’s board with the consensus price and the edge: The Projection Board →
📊 Bo Nix · SPLITS · HIT RATE BY WINDOW
Market · overL5L10L20Season
Passing Yards 5 60%60%60%60%
Passing Touchdowns 5 80%80%80%80% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Rushing Yards 5 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Last Touchdown Scorer 5 20%20%20%20% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 2 Plus Touchdowns 5 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 3 Plus Touchdowns 5 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Over rate on our own graded board, newest window first. Every player, every window, on the Splits board.

🎯 Tonight, and every market on him

Reading the board…
📊 Bo Nix — RECENT GRADED PROPS · 8/30 overs (27%)
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-10-15
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-10-15
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-10-15
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 13.5
2026-10-15
UNDER
final: 2
passing_touchdowns · line 0.5
2026-10-15
UNDER
final: 0
passing_yards · line 197.5
2026-10-15
UNDER
final: 107
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-10-11
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-10-11
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-10-11
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 13.5
2026-10-11
UNDER
final: 10
passing_touchdowns · line 0.5
2026-10-11
OVER
final: 1
passing_yards · line 149.5
2026-10-11
UNDER
final: 123
Graded off our own board · see the full ledger →
🏈 Bo Nix — 2026 GAME LOG · 5 GAMES · QB
Every regular-season week. Green is above his season median, red below — the same line the hit board rates him against until the books post a number.
WkPass ydsPass TDRush ydsRush TD
W1131120
W2288160
W3186271
W42141100
W51231100
Total9426351
Per game188.41.270.2
Median186170
🔬 NEXT UP · WEEK 7 @ ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET
What ARI gave up to QBs in 2026, rank of 32 — green is a soft spot, red is a wall.
#24252.4pass yds/g to QBs
#322.8pass TD/g to QBs
#913rush yds/g to QBs
#152.2sacks/g
The full matchup room → 🎯 Our call on this game → 🎯 How often does he cover a line? →
Rolls forward every Tuesday once the 2026 season is under way.
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🏆 DFS

Pulling live DK salary…

⚖️ Start / Sit

Grading the market…

🌱 Turf vs Grass, by what he does

PASSINGGAttComp%Yds/GTDINT
GRASS31115162%239.6500
TURF929060%168.9130
RUSHINGGCarYds/GYPCTD
GRASS3112320.05.09
TURF94534.06.81
-30% passing yards/game on turf vs grass
+70% rushing yards/game on turf vs grass
Every play bucketed by surface · search any player →

🛠️ Run him through the machines

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Bo Nix — 2025 Zone Breakdown

Passing zones

Bo Nix threw 684 passes in 2025, completing 60.5% for 4210 yards, 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

ZoneAttCompComp %YardsTD
Deep left582848.3%8058
Deep middle17529.4%1171
Deep right421126.2%2982
Short left21015272.4%12304
Short middle895561.8%5462
Short right24116367.6%121411

Run gaps

Bo Nix carried 76 times for 406 yards (5.34 per carry) and 5 touchdowns, with a 55.3% success rate.

GapCarriesYardsAvgTD
Left end201256.251
Left tackle3144.671
Left guard273.50
Up the middle231094.741
Right guard471.750
Right tackle5346.81
Right end171166.821

Snap counts

Bo Nix played 1208 offensive snaps across 18 games in 2025 — 67.1 per game, 99.7% of his team's offensive snaps.

From play-by-play and snap counts, 2025 season. A player who has changed teams since is charted in his previous offense.