An exciting preliminary card is in store for us at UFC Fight Night 285. We see a set of exciting Brazilian prospects in Barboza and Douglas. A true step up match for surging prospect Chris “Taco” Padilla. As well as some fireworks in the women's division to open the night. We cover all seven preliminary bouts here, giving a pick and prediction for each.
Shanelle Dyer v Elise Reed
Opening the night we have an exciting newcomer to the division Shanelle Dyer vs. a veteran of the division in Elise Reed. Reed is a solid fighter who has been in the division since 2021. Coming off of a brutal loss to Denise Gomes where she got caught by a left hook, she is looking to bounce back and show the young fighter that there’s a reason she has been here as long as she has. However, I do not see that happening. Dyer is a fast, powerful striker with a slight reach advantage here. She can be caught and has a tendency to back up in a straight line but, Reed does not have the power to make her pay for that. Reed has a tendency in her career to get finished in every other fight. That changes here and she gets finished two fights in a row.
Reed’s only real chance is to get this to the ground as that is an unproven part of Dyer’s game. Reed is a very well rounded fighter but does not necessarily excel at any one thing. Look for Dyer to turn this into a Muay Thai fight early and keep Reed at bay. Peppering long powerful jabs and teep kicks till she is ready to let her hands go.
Main Pick: Dyer by finish -170
Bonus Pick: Dyer by KO +110
Wes Schultz v Jackson McVey
Next we have submission specialist, Wes Schultz taking on Jackson McVey in the middleweight division. Both are coming off nice bounce back wins where they were able to find a submission finish. Schultz via guillotine and McVey via D’arce choke. Something to note is these two previously fought on the regional scene where Schultz submitted McVey in one round. Both fighters have improved greatly since then. Schultz has an impressive bag of submissions but if his opponent can strike in any regard it is clear he is bankrupt in that department. Look no further than his previous two fights. He gave up against Pinas and accepted the knockout. Then against 40 year old short notice opponent Ben Johnston, he got dominated wherever the fight went and was able to catch a tired opponent in a lucky submission.
Now McVey is no world beater, but he is not scared to take a punch. He is at a clear disadvantage on the ground but that doesn’t hold much weight for me with his opponent being bankrupt on the feet. He can get caught in submission in scrambles but, I believe he is going to look to keep this on the feet. He is an aggressive fighter with solid power that likes to control the center of the octagon. It is going to be hard for Schultz to find his game if he puts himself in as many bad spots as usual, that will catch up to him here. I cannot put my money behind a guy who is scared to get hit.
Main Pick: McVey ML -180
Bonus Pick: McVey by Finish -110
Gauge Young v Stanley Dorsainvil
We have an exciting short notice newcomer in Dorsainvil facing off against a proven young fighter in Gauge Young. This is going to be an ugly one as all Gauge Young fights are. He is an extremely well rounded fighter who mixes his striking and grappling well. He is very hittable and he can cut pretty easily. However, he has been in some wars, it is not somewhere he is uncomfortable. Not holding a whole lot of power he stays busy on the feet and uses openings he creates to mix in the wrestling. He is coming off a split decision win against Thiago Moises where he looked light years ahead on the feet after surviving some early grappling exchanges. I think the damage will catch up with Young eventually, but not in this fight.
There is not much to go on for Dorsainvil. He is a super raw prospect with only five fights to his name. Being long and athletic he uses those weapons well, fighting fast and aggressive. There is a tendency to over extend and chase a finish. No rhyme or reason is shown in his grappling as it is a little chaotic and he seems a little out of his depth in those exchanges. I think he is a fun fighter with a lot of potential but there are still some growing pains to go through. This is a huge step up for Dorsainvil coming from LFA and only having five fights total. Look for Gauge to drag him into deep waters and make this fight ugly.
Main Pick: Gauge Young ML -166
Bonus Pick: Gauge Young 2+ takedowns +180
Ryan Kuse v Marcio Barbosa
This one is pretty cut and dry so I’m not going to spend a whole lot of time on this. You have a debutant in Kuse who likes to stand and bang, and a fighter with God given power like Barbosa. That is the exact formula for a highlight KO and the moneyline indicates that with Barbosa being a -900 favorite. I expect this to be a quick one as Barbosa usually does not need more than a shot or two, and Kuse, foolishly, will be more than willing to stand in the pocket and trade. That is going to cost him this fight.
Pick: Barbosa by KO in R1 -160
Chris Padilla v Nasarat Haqparast
Here we see still unbeaten in the UFC Chris Padilla take on a very solid veteran in Nasrat Haqparast. Padilla fights out of a high guard using straight shots and strong low kicks and he has a great fight IQ. Coming off a majority draw to Mederos, a result many believe to be incorrect, Padilla looks to bounce back here with a step up in competition. Haqparast is coming off a brutal loss via headkick KO courtesy of Sallkild, ending a five fight win streak. During this streak he was able to use his greatest weapons such as his long boxing combinations, one shot power and very fast hands. On paper Haqparast is the better fighter but I just do not see him being as confident in his weapons as he once was, following a ten month layoff and a brutal knockout.
Padilla is going to look to use his IQ and his high guard, using that vicious front body kick and sneaky feints to establish range and keep this fight where he wants it. Padilla loves throwing elbows and knees to the body and he will be able to find that range here. Haqparast is going to use his boxing combos and power to try and deter Padilla, keeping him at the end of his range. However, his willingness to be in that pocket could open up those powerful low kicks for Padilla. This is a fight between a guy on his way up and a guy on his way out. My money is on the guy going up. Padilla has the IQ to grind out a decision against a tough guy like Haqparast and that is what I believe he will do here.
Main Pick: Padilla ML -115
Bonus Pick: Padilla via DEC +205
Kennedy Nzechukwu v Shamil Gaziev
I will start by saying this is going to be a whale of a fight. In Gaziev you have a guy who is going to blob forward and try to smother you on the cage. In Nzechukwu you have a guy with good striking and takedown defense that is known to have lapses in fight IQ. Both guys have an extremely questionable gas tank. Much like any heavyweight fight, both guys have the power to land a knockout blow, and Gaziev's defense has always been a little questionable. He is coming off of two brutal knockout losses to Cortes-Acosta and Pericic. He took some insanely hard shots in that Pericic fight. For all his deficiencies, the recent form of Gaziev’s is a good sign for Nzechukwu. He has solid striking and power while Gaziev has the clear edge in the wrestling department. With all that being said, there are two ways I see this fight playing out. Nzechukwu can land a big shot early and have a quick night, or Gaziev will blob his way to a boring decision. With Gaziev coming off two straight knockout losses, I cannot trust his chin at this point and will be going with the former over the latter.
Main Pick: Nzechukwu ML +105
Bonus Pick: Nzechukwu via KO +200
Jamall Emmers v Lerryan Douglas
This fight is very cut and dry much like the Barbosa fight. You have a guy in Emmers who is willing to come forward and throw, and when he commits to his strikes he leaves many openings for a guy like Douglas to exploit. On the older side, at 37 Emmers age will show in this matchup. Douglas is riding a very impressive six fight KO streak, most recently dismantling Julian Erosa inside of a round. He has real one shot power and a compact counter punching style. He really only lets his hands go if he sees that his opponent is hurt. A style tailor made to beat forward heavy guys like Emmers. Emmers lacks head movement and has lost via KO three times in his career, to less powerful punchers than Douglas. This is going to look very similar to the Emmers v Landwehr fight. Emmers will get caught with a big shot, go for a lazy tie up to stop the exchange and get caught again, leading to the finish. I expect this one to be over early, as Emmers will serve his chin on a silver platter to Douglas.
Main Pick: Lerryan Douglas via KO -200
Bonus Pick: Lerryan Douglas via KO R1 +110
An action packed prelim card with good fights throughout is going to lead us into an exciting main card. Check out picks and predictions for the main card on the most recent episode of The Scrap Sheet on the Not Moved Podcast linked below the article.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OavcQBlSe4M