How likely is a long losing streak for a winning bettor?

Far more likely than intuition says. A 55% bettor over a 300-bet season hits a 5-game losing streak about 96% of the time, a 6-gamer three times in four, a 7-gamer at nearly a coin flip (46%), and an 8-game skid once in four seasons. Streaks are a property of volume, not proof an edge disappeared.

Is this simulated or exact?

Exact. The calculator uses the run-probability recurrence — the same math actuaries use — so the numbers are precise, not Monte Carlo estimates.

Why does streak math matter for bankroll?

Because the streak that is statistically guaranteed must be survivable at your stake size. If a near-certain 7-loss skid would cripple the roll, the unit is too big — the math says so before the streak does.

❄️ The Cold Streak · exact math, no mercy

The losing streak is already scheduled. See it.

Your win rate, your volume — the exact probability of every skid length, and the longest one you should expect. Know it now, on paper, so it can't panic you live.

Your win rate %

Bets in the window

Exact run-probability math — the same recurrence actuaries use. Nothing simulated, nothing sent anywhere.

What this tool does — and why it matters ▾

Every bettor who quits a winning strategy quits during a streak the math had already guaranteed. The Cold Streak computes — exactly, not by simulation — how likely every skid length is at your numbers, so variance arrives as a scheduled visitor instead of an ambush.

Exact probabilities. The run-recurrence gives the true chance of at least one L-loss streak in N bets — precise to the decimal, for every L from 3 to 15.
The expected longest skid. The median worst streak for your window — the one you should plan your unit size around, because it's coming either way.
The coin-flip line. The streak length that's a 50/50 to happen — a one-number reality check for any hot-take about a "collapse."
The warm side too. Your longest expected WIN streak — same math, pointed the other way, so the heater doesn't fool you either.
Bankroll consequences, named. The verdict connects the near-certain streak to stake sizing — if the scheduled skid would cripple the roll, the unit is too big today.
Every league, offline, forever. Pure math on your phone. Pairs with The Long Run, which shows the same truth as 2,000 drawn futures.

This math runs live on every game, automatically.

FantasyDailies scans 9+ sportsbooks all day — risk-free locks, best price on every line, player prop wars — free, no signup.

Member accounts with saved bets, alerts and premium tools are coming — the list goes first.

Accounts are coming

The losing streak is already scheduled. See it.