TWO MARKETS · ONE TRUTH

↔️ Spread ⇄ Moneyline

What this tool is: the spread and the moneyline are two prices on the same event — when they disagree, one is wrong. Convert either direction instantly and catch the disagreement.

The team's spread: -3 favorite, +6.5 dog.
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Win outright
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Fair moneyline
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Opponent fair
Enter both sides and the vig is stripped before converting; one side alone uses raw implied.
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True win %
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Implied spread
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Vig stripped
🎯 Cover probability⚖️ Devig calculator🎰 The Money Room

The bridge between the markets

A -3 favorite wins outright about 58.8% — fair moneyline ≈ -143. A -7 favorite is ~70%, near -233. When the posted moneyline implies a different spread than the posted spread, one market is stale — and stale markets are where the arb finder and middle finder eat. Sigma 13.45 under the hood, same engine as cover probability.
About the spread to moneyline converter

Convert an NFL point spread into the moneyline it implies, and back again. A team favored by 3 usually prices around -150 to -160 on the moneyline, and a team favored by 7 around -300 to -350, because NFL games so often land on those margins.

Why isn't the conversion a straight line?

NFL margins bunch on 3 and 7, so a half point across a key number moves the moneyline far more than a half point anywhere else.