TWO MARKETS · ONE TRUTH

↔️ Spread ⇄ Moneyline

What this tool is: the spread and the moneyline are two prices on the same event — when they disagree, one is wrong. Convert either direction instantly and catch the disagreement.

The team's spread: -3 favorite, +6.5 dog.
Win outright
Fair moneyline
Opponent fair
Enter both sides and the vig is stripped before converting; one side alone uses raw implied.
True win %
Implied spread
Vig stripped

The bridge between the markets

A -3 favorite wins outright about 58.8% — fair moneyline ≈ -143. A -7 favorite is ~70%, near -233. When the posted moneyline implies a different spread than the posted spread, one market is stale — and stale markets are where the arb finder and middle finder eat. Sigma 13.45 under the hood, same engine as cover probability.