⭐ Go Velvet — $9.99/mo

Every tool, every board, unlimited — plus the 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide free and early access to new tools.

Sign Up · $9.99/mo →or create a free account →
🏈 NFL
Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Stats, Zones, Props & DFS

#15 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lbs · age 31 · Texas Tech · 10 yr vet
Kansas City Chiefs checking status… ⚖️ Compare
🎯 Line Checker 🏆 NFL Leaders 🎯 This Week's Matchups 💰 Player Props
AI BriefPatrick Mahomes · the numbers, the matchup and the wire▾

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (#15 · QB · 6' 2" · 225 lbs) has a page here because every man on a roster does: his game log, the props the books post on him, how often he has beaten those numbers, and our own projection when there is a line to project against.

Patrick Mahomes has cleared his number in 0 of his last 12 graded props on this board, with 382, 3, 17, 0, 0 in his most recent games.

Tonight's spot grades 48 out of 100 — even spot — from his own line, the side he faces, the park and the travel.

We project 263.23 pass yds, moved from a base of 255.34 by vs LV pass D #15 (-1.2%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at LV.

We project 28.1 rush yds, moved from a base of 26.96 by vs LV run D #19 (+1.9%), on the road (-2%), grass, on the road at LV.

Everything on this page is graded after the final. Every projection is written down before the game and marked after it, and the running record lives on our results page.

The full board for his league is here. Headlines are summarised with their source; the full stories stay with the outlets that wrote them.

Finding the next game…
HIS WIRE
🔥 Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, picks, prediction, spread, line: Start time, betting preview, best bets on NFL Week 4
CBS · 1h
📰 THE WIRE · HIS LATEST NEWS
🔥Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, picks, prediction, spread, line: Start time, betting preview, best bets on NFL Week 4
KCLVcbs · 1h ago
🔥Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, picks, prediction, spread, line: NFL Week 4 start time, preview, best bets
KCLVcbs · 5h ago
🔥NFL player props Week 4 2026: Best bets, picks for Sunday's NFL games include Patrick Mahomes, Jahmyr Gibbs
cbs · 5h ago

This is the live market page for Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs — every posted player prop with the house price on every line, tonight's best bet, live DraftKings salary and value, a market-graded start/sit verdict, price heat, and the latest news. Updated throughout the day. All math vig-included.

📐 Patrick Mahomes — TONIGHT’S PROJECTION · AT LV
48
Matchup Grade · Even spotHow good tonight’s spot is for him, out of 100 — the defense he faces, the game the number expects, the surface, the rest and the weather.
Pass Yds263.23from 255.34 · 15 games
vs LV pass D #15 -1.2%on the road -2%grass7 days restdome +2%implied 24.2 pts (house engine, v2) +3.7%the machine · 2 graded +0.7%his over rate L10 100% at 124.5 (2 graded)
Rush Yds28.1from 26.96 · 15 games
vs LV run D #19 +1.9%on the road -2%grass7 days restdomeimplied 24.2 pts (house engine, v2) +3.7%the machine · 2 graded +0.7%his over rate L10 50% at 14.5 (2 graded)
The number is his last ten moved by the matchup — the factors above are why. Every prop on tonight’s board with the consensus price and the edge: The Projection Board →
📊 Patrick Mahomes · SPLITS · HIT RATE BY WINDOW
Market · overL5L10L20Season
Passing Yards 2 100%100%100%100%
Passing Touchdowns 2 100%100%100%100% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Rushing Yards 2 50%50%50%50% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Last Touchdown Scorer 2 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 2 Plus Touchdowns 2 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 3 Plus Touchdowns 2 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Over rate on our own graded board, newest window first. Every player, every window, on the Splits board.

🎯 Tonight, and every market on him

Reading the board…
📊 Patrick Mahomes — RECENT GRADED PROPS · 5/12 overs (42%)
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 14.5
2026-09-27
UNDER
final: 1
passing_touchdowns · line 0.5
2026-09-27
OVER
final: 2
passing_yards · line 124.5
2026-09-27
OVER
final: 246
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-09-20
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-09-20
UNDER
final: 0
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-09-20
UNDER
final: 0
rushing_yards · line 14.5
2026-09-20
OVER
final: 17
passing_touchdowns · line 0.5
2026-09-20
OVER
final: 3
passing_yards · line 124.5
2026-09-20
OVER
final: 382
Graded off our own board · see the full ledger →
🏈 Patrick Mahomes — 2026 GAME LOG · 3 GAMES · QB
Every regular-season week. Green is above his season median, red below — the same line the hit board rates him against until the books post a number.
WkPass ydsPass TDRush ydsRush TD
W11842231
W23823170
W3246210
Total8127411
Per game270.72.313.70.3
Median2462170
🔬 NEXT UP · WEEK 4 @ LV · Sun Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET
What LV gave up to QBs in 2026, rank of 32 — green is a soft spot, red is a wall.
#15222.33pass yds/g to QBs
#201.67pass TD/g to QBs
#2825.67rush yds/g to QBs
#43.33sacks/g
The full matchup room → 🎯 Our call on this game → 🎯 How often does he cover a line? →
Source: nflverse weekly stats, banked by fdnfllog.php · rolls forward every Tuesday once the 2026 season is under way.
📚 Latest reads · NFLAll articles →
NFL Week 4 Sunday: DFS Targets, Betting Lines, Injuries, Parlays And Teasers
Week 4 is here, and Sunday brings a loaded NFL slate with 14 games on the schedule, including the 9:30 AM ET London kick…
Commanders vs. Colts In London: Game Breakdown, Players To Watch And DFS Value For The NFL's First 2026 Overseas Game
This one kicks off at 9:30 AM Eastern, not 1 PM, and that is not a typo. Commanders and Colts are playing the NFL's firs…
STATEMENT TIME
HOT START IN MINNESOTA: THE VIKINGS ARE MAKING A STATEMENTMINNEAPOLIS, MN — The Minnesota Vikings are off to a blaz…
Terrible's NFL Picks N Props Week 4
Please Save Money To Cover you Parlay Funds Spent ( See Bottom ) All Bets Are Weather PermittingLA Goff   O 25…
💬 From the forum · NFLJoin the room →
Every NFL referee since 2015 with this week's crews
0 replies · Sep 6
Every NFL prop on one page, every line, every book
0 replies · Sep 6
We lock every NFL call 20 minutes before kickoff
0 replies · Aug 23

🏆 DFS

Pulling live DK salary…

⚖️ Start / Sit

Grading the market…

🌱 Turf vs Grass, by what he does

PASSINGGAttComp%Yds/GTDINT
GRASS42161163%257.1670
TURF1139661%241.3210
RUSHINGGCarYds/GYPCTD
GRASS4214927.27.79
TURF112217.18.50
-6% passing yards/game on turf vs grass
-37% rushing yards/game on turf vs grass
nflverse play-by-play, every play bucketed by surface · ESPN no longer publishes this · search any player →

🛠️ Run him through the machines

© 2026 FANTASYDAILIES · 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER · NOT A SPORTSBOOK — WE READ THE MARKET, YOU MAKE THE CALLS

Patrick Mahomes — 2025 Zone Breakdown

Passing zones

Patrick Mahomes threw 537 passes in 2025, completing 58.7% for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

ZoneAttCompComp %YardsTD
Deep left331236.4%3340
Deep middle19736.8%2661
Deep right491836.7%5230
Short left16911970.4%10096
Short middle714563.4%3658
Short right15911471.7%10907

Run gaps

Patrick Mahomes carried 56 times for 429 yards (7.66 per carry) and 5 touchdowns, with a 69.6% success rate.

GapCarriesYardsAvgTD
Left end151197.930
Left tackle330100
Left guard4317.750
Up the middle9677.441
Right guard6254.170
Right tackle1990
Right end171488.714

Snap counts

Patrick Mahomes played 934 offensive snaps across 14 games in 2025 — 66.7 per game, 97.4% of his team's offensive snaps.

Source: play-by-play and snap counts, 2025 season. A player who has changed teams since is charted in his previous offense.