⭐ Go Velvet — $9.99/mo

Every tool, every board, unlimited — plus the 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide free and early access to new tools.

Sign Up · $9.99/mo →or create a free account →
🏈 NFL
Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III Player Props & DFS Value

#10 · WR · 6' 0" · 210 lbs · age 22 · Missouri · 2 yr vet
Chicago Bears checking status… ⚖️ Compare
✦AI BriefLive read on Luther Burden IIIRead it ▾Luther Burden III has gone over his number in 8 of his last 31 settled props on this board.8 notes · the numbers, the matchup and the wire

Luther Burden III of the Chicago Bears (#10 · WR · 6' 0" · 210 lbs) has a page here because every man on a roster does: his game log, the props the books post on him, how often he has beaten those numbers, and our own projection when there is a line to project against.

Luther Burden III has gone over his number in 8 of his last 31 settled props on this board.

Tonight's spot grades 32 out of 100 — tough spot — from his own line, the side he faces, the park and the travel.

We project 44.77 reception yds, moved from a base of 50.98 by vs SEA pass D #1 (-12%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

We project 3.78 receptions, moved from a base of 4.3 by vs SEA pass D #1 (-12%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

We project 0.15 reception tds, moved from a base of 0.14 by vs SEA red-zone D #27 (+8.1%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

We project 0.16 total tds, moved from a base of 0.15 by vs SEA red-zone D #27 (+8.1%), on the road (-2%), turf, on the road at SEA.

Everything on this page is graded after the final. Every projection is written down before the game and marked after it, and the running record lives on our results page.

The full board for his league is here. Headlines are summarised with their source; the full stories stay with the outlets that wrote them.

Finding the next game…

This is the live market page for Luther Burden III of the Chicago Bears — every posted player prop with the house price on every line, tonight's best bet, live DraftKings salary and value, a market-graded start/sit verdict, price heat, and the latest news. Updated throughout the day. All math vig-included.

📐 Luther Burden III — TONIGHT’S PROJECTION · AT SEA
32
Matchup Grade · Tough spotHow good tonight’s spot is for him, out of 100 — the defense he faces, the game the number expects, the surface, the rest and the weather.
Reception Yds44.77from 50.98 · 6 games
vs SEA pass D #1 -12%on the road -2%turfextra rest · 15 days +3%clear at kickoffthe machine · 6 graded -1.1%his over rate L10 33% at 84.8 (6 graded)
Receptions3.78from 4.3 · 6 games
vs SEA pass D #1 -12%on the road -2%turfextra rest · 15 days +3%clear at kickoffthe machine · 6 graded -1.1%his over rate L10 67% at 2.7 (6 graded)
Reception Tds0.15from 0.14 · 6 games
vs SEA red-zone D #27 +8.1%on the road -2%turfextra rest · 15 days +3%clear at kickoffthe machine · 6 graded -1.1%
Total Tds0.16from 0.15 · 6 games
vs SEA red-zone D #27 +8.1%on the road -2%turfextra rest · 15 days +3%clear at kickoffthe machine · 6 graded -1.1%
Anytime Td0.27from 0.25 · 6 games
vs SEA red-zone D #27 +8.1%on the road -2%turfextra rest · 15 days +3%clear at kickoffthe machine · 6 graded -1.1%
The number is his last ten moved by the matchup — the factors above are why. Every prop on tonight’s board with the consensus price and the edge: The Projection Board →
📊 Luther Burden III · SPLITS · HIT RATE BY WINDOW
Market · overL5L10L20Season
Last Touchdown Scorer 6 40%33%33%33%
Receiving Yards 6 40%33%33%33% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Receptions 6 80%67%67%67% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 2 Plus Touchdowns 6 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
To Score 3 Plus Touchdowns 6 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Rushing Yards 1 0%0%0%0% 🔒 Velvet · every market
Over rate on our own graded board, newest window first. Every player, every window, on the Splits board.

🎯 Tonight, and every market on him

Reading the board…
📊 Luther Burden III — RECENT GRADED PROPS · 8/31 overs (26%)
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-10-22
UNDER
final: 1
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-10-22
UNDER
final: 1
player_receptions · line 4.5
2026-10-22
UNDER
final: 4
player_receiving_yards · line 51.5
2026-10-22
OVER
final: 130
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-10-22
OVER
final: 1
rushing_yards · line 124.5
2026-10-22
UNDER
final: 7
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_2_plus_touchdowns · line 1.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 0
player_receptions · line 1.5
2026-10-18
OVER
final: 8
player_receiving_yards · line 109.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 95
last_touchdown_scorer · line 0.5
2026-10-18
UNDER
final: 0
to_score_3_plus_touchdowns · line 2.5
2026-10-11
UNDER
final: 0
Graded off our own board · see the full ledger →
🏈 Luther Burden III — 2026 GAME LOG · 6 GAMES · WR
Every regular-season week. Green is above his season median, red below — the same line the hit board rates him against until the books post a number.
WkRecRec ydsRec TDRush yds
W156302
W233200
W376117
W4463011
W544702
W689500
Total31361122
Per game5.260.20.23.7
Median4.56202
🔬 NEXT UP · WEEK 8 @ SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET
What SEA gave up to WRs in 2026, rank of 32 — green is a soft spot, red is a wall.
#39.33catches/g to WRs
#1100.5rec yds/g to WRs
#90.67rec TD/g to WRs
#1156.83pass yds allowed/g
The full matchup room → 🎯 Our call on this game → 🎯 How often does he cover a line? →
Rolls forward every Tuesday once the 2026 season is under way.
📚 Latest reads · NFLAll articles →
NFL Week 7 Sunday Early Games Preview: Steelers-Saints in Paris, Lamar Jackson, Breece Hall, Baker Mayfield, Injuries, DFS, Parlays and Teasers
Eight games before 4 p.m. ET, starting with breakfast football from the Stade de France. Three quarterbacks are question…
NFL Week 7 Waiver Wire: Injury Replacements, Fantasy Football Sleepers and DFS Value Plays
Jalen Hurts is out for the season, Davante Adams is out for weeks, Terry McLaurin is done for the year, and four teams a…
NFL Week 6 Inactives, Game-Time Decisions and Fantasy Waiver Replacements:
Three star absences, a changed starter in Tampa Bay and a Bears quarterback who is still questionable. Here is who steps…
NFL Week 6 Sunday Early Games: Quarterback Changes, Injuries, Props, DFS Targets and Parlay Research
The Eagles are without Jalen Hurts, the Buccaneers are without Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson is out again. Sunday's e…
💬 From the forum · NFLJoin the room →
Every NFL call for Week 7 lives in one place
0 replies · Oct 24
One-thread NFL recap: what was Sunday's biggest surprise?
0 replies · Oct 12
Every NFL referee since 2015 with this week's crews
0 replies · Sep 6

🏆 DFS

Pulling live DK salary…

⚖️ Start / Sit

Grading the market…

🛠️ Run him through the machines

© 2026 FANTASYDAILIES · 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER · NOT A SPORTSBOOK — WE READ THE MARKET, YOU MAKE THE CALLS