THE HOOK · PRICED HONESTLY
🪝 Half Point Calculator
What this tool is: books sell half points like they're all equal — they are not. This prices the exact half point you're crossing using real NFL margin frequencies, so you know when the hook is worth the juice and when it's a tax.
Spread from the favorite's side (3 = -3). DIRECTION: type buy (get a better number: -3 → -2.5) or sell (take worse for a better price).
The key numbers, exposed
NFL margins pile on the field-goal and touchdown numbers: roughly 9.5% of games land exactly on 3 and 5.7% on 7, with 6, 10 and 14 forming the second shelf and numbers like 5 nearly empty. Buying a half point converts pushes into wins (or losses into pushes) exactly as often as the game lands on the number crossed — so the hook at 3 is gold, and the hook at 5 is a souvenir. Books price accordingly; this page tells you when they're overcharging.