Why Parlays Lose

Every sportsbook builds a margin into every price — and a parlay pays that margin on every leg at once. The Truth Machine is a vig X-ray: it strips the margin out of each leg, rebuilds the ticket at its fair price, and shows the gap in plain dollars.

• Fair price, exposed. Each leg’s true probability is recovered by removing the book’s hold, then multiplied across the ticket — the price the parlay should pay.
• The keep bar. One glance shows your share of fair value versus the slice the book keeps — the number they never print on the slip.
• Expected value in dollars. Not theory — the actual long-run cost or profit of this exact ticket at your stake.
• The singles mirror. The same legs, the same money, bet separately — and the exact dollar difference over the long run. Parlays buy a lottery shape; this shows the ticket price.
• Adjustable hold. Sharp books hold less, promos hold more — set the margin per leg and the machine recalculates everything.
• Every league, every book, forever. Pure math, computed on your phone. Nothing is sent anywhere, nothing expires, nothing needs a login.